Hurricanes, Climate Models, and Al Gore Wild Guesses
Hurricane season is upon us. Harvey last week and Irma this week. Both monster storms and long overdue if one looks at the pattern of hurricanes throughout history. After a hurricane drought, Harvey was the first major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or higher, to make U.S. landfall since 2005 when Hurricane Wilma hit Florida. Despite myriad predictions of monster storms after Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans, there were not a plethora of superstorms to follow. Why not? These megastorms were predicted based on the “settled science” of global warming, climate change, severe weather, and the like. Such predictions are based on computer models , factoring in tons of data including ocean temperatures and currents, wind patterns, moisture levels and other factors. Many models exist, their accuracy based on their ability to predict the severity and track of hurricanes and tropical storms. As these storms are frequent and short lived, there is ample opport...