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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’

Al Gore’s Army Spreads ‘Climate Gospel’




Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore is busily training an army of organizers to go out and spread his environmental gospel ahead of key climate talks in Paris later this year.
“At each session, he delivers an updated version of his Academy Award-winning documentary “An Inconvenient Truth,” using the latest news footage and startling videos to show how the very fossil fuels that have powered so much innovation are leading to the demise of society.
“Air so hot it melts airport runways, floodwaters that crumble roads and bridges, methane that blows terrifying holes in Siberia and air pollution so thick it has shortened life expectancy in China by several years featured prominently during his three-hour presentation in Miami this week.

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/al-gore-climate-change-organizers/2015/09/29/id/693956/?ns_mail_uid=53823643&ns_mail_job=1637809_09302015&s=al&dkt_nbr=wbpvha74

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Michael Mann loses another fake Nobel prize





Yesterday, I learned that Youngstown State University had made the following claim about hokey stick inventor Michael Mann.
CP2z4RYXAAAiZUp
Despite Mann’s repeated claims, he has never won a Nobel prize.
I alerted Youngstown State’s Dr. Ray Beiersdorfer about the error and he promptly e-mailed back:
Screen Shot 2015-09-27 at 4.34.37 PM copy
So Mann is back to just being part of the IPCC — as was, say, skeptic John Christy. Although Christy never falsely claimed to be a Nobel prize winner.
JunkScience has also taken away Nobel prizes awarded to Mann by UCLA,Angelo State University, and Economia magazine.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

AL Gore Strange New Climate Change Spin: The Hottest Year Ever Inside a Global Warming ‘Pause’?


 




There are two stories floating around about the state of the earth’s atmosphere. Both are believed true by government-funded scientists and the environmentally minded. The situation is curious because the stories don’t mesh. Yet, as I said, both are believed. Worse, neither is true.
Story number one is that this year will be the hottest ever. And number two is that the reason it is not hot is because “natural variation” has masked or stalled man-caused global warming.
Which is it? Either it’s hotter than ever or it isn’t. If it is, then (it is implied) man-caused global warming has not “paused.” If it isn’t, if man-caused global warming has “paused,” then it is not growing hotter.

There are two things to keep straight: (1) why these divergent contentions are believed, and (2) why they are incompatible and individually false. The first point is easy. Climatology has become a branch of politics. And in politics, particularly in our rambunctious democracy, statements asserted in the name of some political goal are usually believed or at least supported by those who share the goal. It is necessary for global-warming-of-doom to be true in order to attain the government’s goal (of increasing in size and power), so any statement which supports global warming is likely to be touted by government supporters, even mutually incompatible statements.

Scientists — and some very big names indeed — who have made their living on government grants, and who provide arguments in line with the government’s desire that global-warming-of-doom be true, recently wrote a letter to the President and Attorney General asking these officials to criminally prosecute under the RICO Act scientists like myself and organizations that might fund me. Which scientists and organizations? Those, they say, who have “knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change, as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change.
In other words, arguments put forth by independent scientists and organizations that do not support the government’s line cannot be considered science, but should instead be classified as criminal acts. Incidentally, it has come out that the scientist leading the effort to prosecute the innocent has “paid himself & his wife $1.5 million from gov’t climate grants for part-time work.” Climatology is thus a branch of politics. Quod erat demonstrandum.

I’m no politician and can’t predict what will come of this. But I am a scientist and know good physics from bad. To understand why the claims about the atmosphere mentioned above are false, it is necessary to grasp, at least in broad outline, some rather complicated statistics and physics. Let’s try.

Claim Number One: This Year Will Be The Hottest Ever

The first claim is not only false, it is ludicrously false. It’s not even close to being true. There have been times in the history of the earth when it was much hotter. Here is a link to one estimate of the earth’s mean temperature over time.

But haven’t atmospheric carbon dioxide levels risen over the past few decades? Yes, but here is another link with carbon dioxide levels plotted alongside temperature (see the second graph down at the link) showing how the two do not track each other and at times have even moved in opposite directions.

We are now geologically in what is called the Quaternary Period, which is characterized by periodic cold snaps, which is to say, glaciations. Glaciers have come and glaciers have gone for more than two million years, and we expect they’ll continue to come and go mainly because of the way the earth wobbles and wends it way around the sun. Before the Quaternary was the Pliocene, and well before this was the better known (thanks, Hollywood!) Jurassic, which ran 145 to 200 million years ago. And before the Jurassic was the Triassic, extending back another 25 millions years.
From the Triassic to the Quaternary, a time spanning more than 200 million years, the earth was hotter than it is now, and not just a little hotter, but downright steamy at times, with temperatures 10 or more degrees Celsius higher. It was so hot that the entire planet was green and fertile, and animals, you might recall, grew to tremendous size. Before the Triassic there were other periods, some of which more closely resembled ours in climate.

The lesson to be learned from this is that the climate is never constant; it always has changed and always will. Stopping climate change is a human impossibility. I mean this word in its strict sense. There is no power short of Omnipotence that can stop the climate from changing. Certainly no government can. To plead, therefore, that we should stop climate change is not to engage in science, but politics.

Above I said the linked picture represented an estimate of the temperature, and this is so. Thermometers didn’t exist in any reliable or widespread sense until the last 100 or so years of earth’s history, and even now these only cover a small fraction of the earth’s surface. And even in the modern era, the ways we have of measuring temperature have varied and still vary. Satellites, which provide some of the best, but still imperfect, global measurements have only existed about 50 years.
That means if we want to know the temperature before 50-100 years ago, we have to guess. It’s not a blind guess, though, since we can use so-called “proxies.” These are chemical and physical measurements known to be correlated with air temperature. We can tally these over geologic times and plug them into a statistical model that predicts what the temperatures were. There is nothing wrong with this except for two things. Here it gets a bit technical.

No statistical guess should be stripped of its uncertainty. We don’t want the temperature guess alone, we want it with a plus-or-minus the guess attached. The first problem is that these plus-and-minuses are almost always absent. The result is over-certainty in statements about what the past was compared with the present. Sometimes uncertainty in the temperature guesses is provided, but it’s the wrong kind of uncertainty, the wrong plus-or-minuses.

All these statistical models have innards called parameters, which are nothing more than mathematical “dials” necessary for the equations to work out. Unfortunately, a fallacy has become ingrained in science that these parameters directly represent or are reality. This fallacy is so ubiquitous that I call it the Cult of the Parameter. The fallacy is harmful because the plus-and-minus bounds to reality are necessarily larger than the plus-or-minus bounds to model parameters (usually 4 to 8 times larger). The result is always dramatic over-certainty.

And it’s still worse. The models take proxy measurements, but the uncertainty in the time those proxies were laid down in history is always discarded in the statistical models. How do you know the proxy you measured was 1.10 and not 1.11 million years ago? Answer: you don’t.
The end result is to make temperature guesses appear smooth and uncomplicated, which is an illusion. That illusion makes it easier for (actually measured) temperatures in modern times to appear more variable. And that makes it easier to appear that we are hotter now, even if we’re not. Add to that the observations that modern records are continually being tweaked by scientists (and strangely always in a direction that makes it appears colder then and warmer now), and it’s no surprise to hear talk of “record temperatures.”



Claim Number Two: Natural Variation Caused A “Pause”

The American Meteorological Society is, or rather was, the preeminent organization for those who study weather and climate. Its official organ is known as BAMS, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. BAMS is used to impart news items of interest and the like, but it also publishes review articles on the state of science.

Now the AMS has, like nearly all other government-money-dependent scientific organizations, given up all pretense of physics and has instead embraced politics as its raison d’etre. So far removed from its original mission is the AMS that they are publishing a BAMS review article by two non-scientist ideologues and one scientist who writes mostly about politics. The title is “The ‘Pause’ in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science.

The authors are Stephan Lewandowsky, a psychologist who specializes in gimmicked surveys, Naomi Oreskes, a historian who believes in a vast right-wing conspiracy, and James Risbey, a real climatologist who spends much of his time wondering why everybody doesn’t agree with him (he has more than one paper with Lewandowsky and Oreskes on this theme).

The point of this new paper is the same as all of Lewandowsky’s works. He wants to paint detractors of The Consensus as crazy or oil-industry stooges. For these authors, and for many, the mere fact that government-funded scientists have said a problem with the atmosphere exists and that only government can solve it is more than sufficient proof of the contention. Any who disagree must be doing so out of ignorance, insanity or evil intent. That their position on the science might be wrong never occurs to them.

And they are wrong. Their claim is that the (satellite) observed non-increase in global temperatures over the past two decades was caused by any or some combination of these: “natural variations,” El Niño, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, “random” or “routine fluctuations” and the like. They say that if these “causes” did not exist, the temperatures would have increased just as they were predicted to under the theory of enhanced-feedback carbon-oxide-driven (EFCOD) global warming.

Do you see the fallacy? They use the absence of predicted increases as proof the increases were really there, but in masked or modified form! To them, the repeated, consistent and egregiously mistaken predictions made by climate models are true no matter what because EFCOD global warming is true no matter what. It used to be in science that when a theory made predictions even as fractionally lousy as EFCOD global warming, it was quietly removed from service. But global warming can’t be dropped. There is too much riding on it remaining in force.

And this is not the only or even the worst fallacy. Having faith in lovingly created but failed theories is an error, but it is an understandable human foible. No one wants to disown his child, no matter how ugly. Our response to a scientist who doesn’t want to give up his life’s work should be pity, not condemnation.

But making statements physically impossible is not forgivable, not for those who call themselves physicists. The real blunder is this. Scientists claimed to understand how the atmosphere worked. Based on this understanding, they said that “disruptive,” “dangerous” global warming would soon be upon us. It didn’t happen. What went wrong? El Niño, they say.
But El Niño, “natural fluctuations” and the like are not things separate from the atmosphere. They are part of the atmosphere. These things are nothing more than human-labels given to particular measures of the atmosphere. El Niño is not a primary cause, it is an effect, an observation. “Natural fluctuations” means “what the atmosphere does.” Thus it is a tautology, an observation empty of scientific content, to say “what the atmosphere does” caused “what the atmosphere did.”
These “routine fluctuations” and the like are part of what the scientists said they already understood. They are not alien entities that arrive unexpectedly and upset theory; they are, or should have been, an integral part of EFCOD global-warming theory. These things are the atmosphere, they are the climate.

It is thus clear that scientists who blame these phenomena for their failings don’t know what they are talking about. They said they understood the atmosphere, and here is proof they did not. So why should we continue to believe them when they say, “The time to act is now”?

We now see that the word “pause” is a terrible misnomer, a circularity. It states what it seeks to prove. To say there is a “pause” is to claim that we know why the atmosphere is doing what it is doing. But if that were so, then the models over the past two decades would have made successful predictions. They made atrocious predictions, and they are growing worse. That means to say there is a “pause” is equivalent to we know global warming is there because we can’t see it.

It is well past the time to move on from EFCOD global warming and return to doing real science.







OBAMA: DEMOCRATIC PROCESS IS ‘PAINFULLY SLOW’ ON Global Warming




Rolling Stone rolls out an exclusive interview with President Obama, featuring contributing editor Jeff Goodell who delicately asks the all-important question about the issue of climate change: “Doesn’t it scare the shit out of you sometimes?” he asks.

Not to Obama. “Part of my job is to read stuff that terrifies me all the time,” he replied. “The whole point of this trip — is to sound the alarm.”
At another point in the interview, conducted during the president’s recent trip to Alaska, Obama complains that American democracy isn’t reacting quickly enough to the issue of climate change.
“Our Democratic process is painfully slow. Historically politics catch up when the public cares deeply. The American people have to feel the same urgency that I do,” he said.
When asked why he doesn’t do more to raise the alarm to Americans, Obama replied. “I do what I can do, and as much as I can do. What I don’t want to do is get paralyzed by the magnitude of the thing.”
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/24/obama-democratic-process-painfully-slow-climate-change/

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Hello Al Gore 2015: U.S. Sees Another Quiet Tornado Season – ‘Numbers Have Been Running Well Below Average, But, But Al Gore You Say That Global Warming May Spawn More Southeast US Tornadoes

"We see this trend in a lot of extreme weather," said lead study author Victor Gensini, a severe storms climatologist at the College of DuPage in Illinois. "Changes in the jet stream are causing the jet to break down and get stuck in these blocking patterns," Gensini said. "It just so happens it could be in a favorable pattern for tornadoes or a really bad pattern [for tornadoes]















We are now well past the peak of the tornado season in the US, so it is good to see that this year so far tornado numbers have been running well below average.

ptorngraph


This is now the fourth year in a row which has been below average.

torngraph-big


Looking at the longer term data back to 1954, adjusted for the fact that many more tornadoes are reported these days because of technology etc, this year is again shown to be amongst the quieter years.

torgraph

There have been no EF-5’s reported so far this year, the number of stronger EF-3’s and 4’s are also below the long term average, with 27 provisionally reported so far, compared with the climatological average of 37 at this time of year.

   
At this time of year, many tornadoes result from tropical storm systems, so with the quiet hurricane season continuing, we can hope that tornado numbers remain low.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/09/09/another-quiet-tornado-year-so-far/

Calling Algore–calling warmer scaremongers–look at the cyclonic energy levels Global Hurricane Activity At 45-Year Low? What You Say You Al Gore?



Even though it is not true, alarmist sites everywhere continue citing “increased storm activity” as evidence of man-made climate change. Yet, when we look at the numbers, we see that nothing could be further from the truth.
At Twitter earlier today Philip Klotzbach tweeted, “Seasonal ACE only 50% of normal thru 9/9.”
Indeed looking at weather site www.wunderground.com we see that global cyclone activity measured by the “Accumulated Cyclone Energy” (ACE) index over the past four years is even at a 45-year low!
Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) since 1970. Chart shows that storm activity worldwide over the past 4 years is at a 45-year low and that the trend has been in steep decline since 1990. Source: www.wunderground.com.
[Note: NOAA explains: “The only difference between a hurricane, a cyclone, and a typhoon is the location where the storm occurs. Hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons are all the same weather phenomenon; we just use different names for these storms in different places. In the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific, the term “hurricane” is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a “typhoon” and “cyclones” occur in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.”]
Some years ago alarmist climate scientists, who insist a consensus backs their science, claimed with high certainty that global warming would increase the frequency and intensity of cyclones globally. We were told to expect “super-charged storms”, all fueled by global warming heat.
Well, something must be awfully wrong with their science. The exact opposite is true. The same has happened with temperature, global sea ice, and snow cover.
Perhaps the global warming experts will tell us that the huge cyclones are hidden somewhere deep in the oceans along with the “missing heat”, getting ready to pounce later in the future.


Read more: http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/10/global-hurricane-energy-at-45-year-low/#ixzz3lMiZylIa

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

What’s Really Melting: Obama’s Alaskan Global Warming Fantasy And The But Hurt That Go With It Is

Obama’s hike up the rapidly melting Exit Glacier today has run into some unfortunate buzzkill: reality.


The hike is supposed to be the high point of this week’s trip to Alaska, undertaken for the purpose of dramatizing global warming. The media pitch is that Exit Glacier has been rapidly retreating for decades because of global warming.


Sadly for the President’s play acting, though, the National Park Service  previously reported that Exit Glacier has been exiting since at least the early 1800s — before the Industrial Revolution even got underway.
Table 1
This isn’t the only intrusion of reality into the President’s staged climate drama.


While the President made big news announcing that he was changing the name of Mt. McKinley to Denali, the irony is that multiple glaciers there are actually expanding, according to the National Park Service, something hard to square with his global warming fantasy.


Also, while the media is busily hyping the storyline that Alaska is both melting and drowning, reality is more of a mixed bag.
First, surface temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center shows that the average temperature in Alaska isn’t much changed over the past 95 years.
Table 2
Next, while sea level has apparently increased at parts of the Alaskan coastline, at other locations seal level has declined.
table 3
While in Alaska, John Kerry likened global warming to World War II. As over the top as that comparison is, Kerry is correct in one respect: climate alarmism has certainly blown science and reality to hell and back.

John Global Warming Fear Mongering Kerry: Global Warming ‘Not A Distant Threat’




Secretary of State John Kerry sought to sound the alarm on climate change Monday, telling Arctic-nation leaders that a warming Earth is already threatening the world.
Kerry’s message opening a State Department conference on Arctic policy in Anchorage, Alaska, was a call for global action to fight climate change for the sake of the world as a whole and the Arctic specifically.
“The bottom line is that climate change is not a distant threat for our children and their children to worry about,” Kerry said.
“It is now. It is happening now.”
The State Department is hosting the conference — titled Global Leadership in the Arctic: Cooperation, Innovation, Engagement and Resilience — to gather diplomats from nations in the Arctic and countries with heavy Arctic interests and discuss climate change, security and related questions.
President Obama will speak later Monday at the conference as part of his first visit to Alaska.
Kerry focused his speech heavily on the effects of climate change that Alaska and the rest of the Arctic are currently seeing, including rising sea levels, melting permafrost and dramatically changing ecosystems.
But what happens in the Arctic affects the rest of the globe, he said.
“The Arctic is so important for us to visit and understand because the Arctic is, in many ways, a thermostat, a computerized system, if you will, where we don’t even understand fully what the algorithm is, and yet we already see it’s having a profound impact on the rest of the planet,” Kerry said.
"The temperature patterns, the weather patterns, what happens in the ocean, in the Arctic, can in fact, we know, though we don’t understand fully the ways in which it will happen, but we know it has this profound impact on habitat everywhere, on breeding grounds everywhere, on the ecosystem itself,” he continued.
Kerry said he hoped the conference would be a “stepping stone” to the United Nations’ climate meeting in Paris, where leaders plan to write a global pact to cut greenhouse gases.
He called for the world to unite around climate change in the same way that leaders got together to start the U.N. in the 1940s to clamp down on war and unrest.
“If we commit ourselves to climbing this mountain together, then I am absolutely convinced that we will meet the obligation we have to future generations,” he said.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Obama Warns of Planet Beyond Repair: 'Submerged Countries. Abandoned Cities. Fields No Longer Growing'


 




In a speech in Anchorage, Alaska, on Monday President Barack Obama warned that if nations do not act to stop climate change "we will condemn our children to a planet beyond their capacity to repair."
"Climate change is no longer some far-off problem," Obama said." It is happening here. It is happening now. Climate change is already disrupting our agriculture and ecosystems, our water and food supplies, our energy, our infrastructure, human health, human safety--now. Today."

If we were to abandon our course of action, if we stop trying to build a clean-energy economy and reduce carbon pollution, if we do nothing to keep the glaciers from melting faster, and oceans from rising faster, and forests from burning faster, and storms from growing stronger, we will condemn our children to a planet beyond their capacity to repair,” he said.

“Submerged countries. Abandoned cities. Fields no longer growing. Indigenous peoples who can’t carry out traditions that stretch back millennia," he said. "Entire industries of people who can’t practice their livelihoods. Desperate refugees seeking the sanctuary of nations not their own. Political disruptions that could trigger multiple conflicts around the globe."

The president also predicted that temperatures in Alaska would rise six to 12 degrees by the end of the century.

“So if we do nothing, temperatures in Alaska are projected to rise between six and 12 degrees by the end of the century, triggering more melting, more fires, more thawing of the permafrost, a negative feedback loop, a cycle--warming leading to more warming--that we do not want to be a part of,” he said.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/melanie-hunter/obama-predicts-planet-beyond-repair-climate-change-speech

FLASHBACK: ABC's ’08 Prediction: NYC Under Water from Climate Change By June 2015?

Embedded image permalink

Barack Obama in Alaska: Global Warming Fear Mongering Starts Here.

 





Shrinking Alaskan glaciers served as a vivid backdrop for Barack Obama’s latest push for action on climate change in Anchorage on Monday night as he warned that the equivalent of 75 blocks of ice the size of the national mall in Washington were melting from the state every year.

The president, who will visit the nearby Seward glacier on Tuesday to see its shrinkage for himself, urged international participants at the Glacier conference to act fast before it was too late to limit the impact not just on the region but the whole world.

The Arctic is at the leading edge of climate change, a leading indicator of what the entire planet faces,” warned Obama, who said new research showed 75 gigatons of ice were disappearing from Alaskan glaciers annually – each gigaton the equivalent of a block stretching from the Capitol to the Lincoln memorial and four times as high as the Washington Monument.


“Climate change is no longer some far-off problem,” he added. “Climate change is already disrupting our agriculture and ecosystems, our water and food supplies, our energy and infrastructure.”
Obama struck an optimistic tone about the growing global consensus around the need to limit carbon dioxide emissions. “This year in Paris has to be the year that the world finally reaches an agreement to protect the one planet that we’ve got while we still can,” he said.

“This is within our power. This is a solvable problem – if we start now.
“We are starting to see that enough consensus is being built internationally and within each of our own body politics that we may have the political will to get moving.”

In particular the president hinted at further announcements during the remainder of his three-day trip to Alaska, which is designed to highlight the threat from carbon emissions and strengthen the domestic political case for new power station regulations.

“Over the course of the coming days I intend to speak more about the particular challenges facing Alaska and the United States as an Arctic power and intend to announce new measures to address them,” he said.

Nonetheless the president was greeted with environmental protests before his speech, with campaigners criticising his support for offshore oil drilling in the state.
 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/01/barack-obama-in-alaska-global-fight-against-climate-change-starts-here?CMP=ema_565