Farmer’s Almanac makes sense.
The Farmer’s Almanac has been around since the 18th Century–and they are reliable on long range weather prediction. Their results predicting weather are enviable, 80% accurate on specific regions and temp/precip.
The Farmer’s Almanac has 16 regions for the United states and was right on for predictions on temp and precipitation for 15 of the 16 regions for the winter of 2012 and 2013. 94% right, even better than their claim that they are 80% correct throughout their history of predicting weather.
That’s long range. For example I have the 2014 Almanac and they are making long range predictions for 16 regions of the US.
The formula they use is driven by sunspots and other factors and the foundational work was by Robert B. Thomas in 1792.
On page 202 of the 2014 Farmer’s Almanac they discuss their methods in general, even though they have a secret formula.
Then they proceed with a complete monthly prediction for the 16 regions of the United States. That takes nerve.
“Over the years, we have refined and enhanced that formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long range predictions, solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity: climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns, and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.”
Predictions can be more reliable if you start with the fact that the universe is a stable place, with all kinds of feedbacks that prevent catastrophic chaos–something people need to remember. The universe we have is a friendly and stable place. We would not be if the sun was in in a different place in the galaxy or the Planet Earth in a different place in the solar system–we are just plain lucky, now, aren’t we.
Reminds me of a wonderful book by a great man treated badly by Iowa State U. Guillermo Gonzalez wrote The Privileged Planet: how our place in the cosmos is designed for discovery.
The faculty at Iowa State said he was not academic enough, but what they meant was he introduced a mystery/religious point of view in described the unique place in the Universe that we occupy. I State Cyclones refused him tenure.
I wonder if the IPCC modeling cottage industry players keep a Farmer’s Almanac on the desk? Or if they ever consider that we are in a special place in the Universe.
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