Climate scientist: Global warming models could be ‘fundamentally wrong’
In an interview
with the German news publication Der Spiegel, meteorologist Hans von
Storch said that scientists are so puzzled by the 15-year standstill in global warming
that if the trend continues their models could be “fundamentally wrong.”
“If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate
models,” Storch told Der Spiegel. “A 20-year pause in global warming
does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are
finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with
our expectations.”
Environmentalists have been increasingly calling on President Obama to address global warming before it becomes irreversible. The World Bank reported
that global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius over the next
century if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t brought under control. Many
world leaders are committed to limit the increase to 2 degrees Celsius.
“The scientists tell us that if the world warms by two degrees
Centigrade (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — warming which may be reached in
20 to 30 years — that will cause widespread food shortages,
unprecedented heat waves, and more intense cyclones,” said World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in a statement.
Yet global warming skeptics have pointed to a halt in global warming about 15 years ago. Climate scientists have recently started lowering their warming forecasts.
“There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us,” said Storch. “The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed.”
“The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes,” Storch added.
The UN’s climate authority predicted that global temperatures will rise between 1 degree Celsius and 3 degrees Celsius in the short term. However, UK researchers recently reported
that global temperatures will only rise between 0.9 degrees Celsius and
2.0 degrees Celsius — echoing a finding by Norwegian researchers that
global temperatures will only rise 1.9 degrees Celsius
“Certainly the greatest mistake of climate researchers has been giving the impression that they are declaring the definitive truth,” said Storch. “The end result is foolishness along the lines of the climate protection brochures recently published by Germany’s Federal Environmental
Agency under the title ‘Sie erwärmt sich doch’ (‘The Earth is getting
warmer’). Pamphlets like that aren’t going to convince any skeptics.”
that if the trend continues their models could be “fundamentally wrong.”“If things continue as they have been, in five years, at the latest, we will need to acknowledge that something is fundamentally wrong with our climate
models,” Storch told Der Spiegel. “A 20-year pause in global warming
does not occur in a single modeled scenario. But even today, we are
finding it very difficult to reconcile actual temperature trends with
our expectations.”Environmentalists
have been increasingly calling on President Obama to address global warming before it becomes irreversible. The World Bank reported
that global temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius over the next
century if greenhouse gas emissions aren’t brought under control. Many
world leaders are committed to limit the increase to 2 degrees Celsius.“The scientists tell us that if the world warms by two degrees
Centigrade (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) — warming which may be reached in
20 to 30 years — that will cause widespread food shortages,
unprecedented heat waves, and more intense cyclones,” said World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in a statement.Yet global warming skeptics have pointed to a halt in global warming about 15 years ago. Climate scientists have recently started lowering their warming forecasts.
“There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us,” said Storch. “The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great
as we have believed.”“The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes,” Storch added.
The UN’s climate authority predicted that global temperatures will rise between 1 degree
Celsius and 3 degrees Celsius in the short term. However, UK researchers recently reported
that global temperatures will only rise between 0.9 degrees Celsius and
2.0 degrees Celsius — echoing a finding by Norwegian researchers that
global temperatures will only rise 1.9 degrees Celsius“Certainly the greatest mistake of climate researchers has been giving the impression that they are declaring the definitive truth,” said Storch. “The end result is foolishness along the lines of the climate protection brochures recently published by Germany’s Federal Environmental
Agency under the title ‘Sie erwärmt sich doch’ (‘The Earth is getting
warmer’). Pamphlets like that aren’t going to convince any skeptics.”
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