More bad news for warmism: ‘Hot spot’ predicted by climate models doesn’t exist, new paper reports:
“The modeled temperature anomaly differences trend is significantly
higher than that of the measured ones, confirming that the vertical
amplification of warming is exaggerated in models.”
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds, once again, that climate models get the core assumptions wrong and that the fabled 'hot spot' is still missing. All climate models predict the tropical troposphere will warm the fastest to produce a 'hot spot,' yet observations from satellites and 28 million weather balloons
confirm that there is no hot spot, and that the surface has warmed more
than the tropical troposphere. This new paper confirms that "The
modeled [tropical tropospheric] trend is significantly higher than that
of the measured ones, confirming that the vertical amplification of
warming is exaggerated in models." The authors "suggest
that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modelled
simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be
removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations." Most
likely, that "persistent signal" that "should be removed" from the
models is the core assumption of an anthropogenic 'hot spot' present in
all climate models.
Plausible reasons for the inconsistencies between the modelled and observed temperatures in the tropical troposphere
Costas A. Varotsos et al
Abstract: We herewith attempt to detect plausible reasons for the discrepancies between the measured and modeled tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. For this purpose, we calculate the trends of the upper-minus-lower tropospheric temperature anomaly differences (TAD) for both the measured and modeled time series during 1979-2010. The modeled TAD trend is significantly higher than that of the measured ones, confirming that the vertical amplification of warming is exaggerated in models. To investigate the cause of this exaggeration, we compare the intrinsic properties of the measured and modelled TAD by employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The DFA-exponent obtained for the measured values reveals white noise behaviour, while the exponent for the modelled ones shows that they exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modelled simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations.
New paper finds the 'hot spot' predicted by climate models doesn't exist
Plausible reasons for the inconsistencies between the modelled and observed temperatures in the tropical troposphere
Costas A. Varotsos et al
Abstract: We herewith attempt to detect plausible reasons for the discrepancies between the measured and modeled tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. For this purpose, we calculate the trends of the upper-minus-lower tropospheric temperature anomaly differences (TAD) for both the measured and modeled time series during 1979-2010. The modeled TAD trend is significantly higher than that of the measured ones, confirming that the vertical amplification of warming is exaggerated in models. To investigate the cause of this exaggeration, we compare the intrinsic properties of the measured and modelled TAD by employing detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The DFA-exponent obtained for the measured values reveals white noise behaviour, while the exponent for the modelled ones shows that they exhibit long-range power law correlations. We suggest that the vertical amplification of warming derived from modelled simulations is weighted with a persistent signal, which should be removed in order to achieve better agreement with observations.
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2013/06/new-paper-finds-hot-spot-predicted-by.html
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