Climate change models may not be accurate after all as study finds most widely overestimated global warming.

Predictions on global warming trends may not be as accurate as at first their studies suggest.

A new study in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at  117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming.

Out of 117 predictions, only three were accurate. The other 114 overestimated the amount by which the Earth's temperature rose. 

The predictions were roughly twice the amount of global warming than had actually occurred. 

A vision of the future? Or maybe not! As it would appear most climate change prediction models are way off

Some scientists have suggested that such results require a major overhaul in climate modelling and  say the study shows that climate modellers need to go back to the drawing board.

‘It's a real problem ... it shows that there really is something that needs to be fixed in the climate models,’ climate scientist John Christy, a professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told FoxNews.com.

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‘I looked at 73 climate models going back to 1979 and every single one predicted more warming than happened in the real world.’

But other scientists are less concerned with the gross overestimation of the future of climate and global temperatures.

It might not be as bad as you first thought: Out of 117 climate model predictions, only 3 were accurate when compared to the reality of the planets' climate

‘This is neither surprising nor particularly troubling to me as a climate scientist,’ Melanie Fitzpatrick, a climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, told FoxNews.com. ‘The work of our community is constantly to refine our understanding of the climate system and improve models based on that,’ she says.

She believed that over the long term, climate models will be accurate but there also too many variations in climate to expect models to be accurate over twenty years.

John Christy has looked at a series of models dating back to 1979 which is the first year for which reliable satellite temperature data exists which predictions can be compared to.

‘I looked at 73 climate models going back to 1979 and every single one predicted more warming than happened in the real world,’ Christy said.

Many of the overestimations also made their way into the popular press.

In for a rough ride? Those rising seas we've been fearing may not happen quite as fast as predictions would show. A 'Nature' study has found that many predictions are often out by sometimes double the original model would suggest

In 1989, the Associate Press reported: ‘Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide 2 degrees by 2010.’

But according to NASA global temperature has increased by less than half that -- about 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit -- from 1989 to 2010.

In 1972, Christian Science Monitor predicted that the Arctic Ocean would be ice-free by the year 2000. That was also wrong.

‘The paper in no way diminishes the extensive body of observations that global warming is happening and that it is largely due to human activity,’ Ms Fitzpatrick added.

Wrong again: There were predictions levels of polar ice would decrease, but it seems levels have actually increased since last year with a record return of Arctic ice cap as it grew by 60% in a year

Get the message? Even scientists can't agree how accurate their own models are on the future of the Earth's climate

‘Global surface temperature is still rising ... 2012 was in the top ten warmest years on record. The period 2001-2010 was the warmest on record since instrumental measurements began,’ she added.

Mr Christy agrees that there has been some warming over time, but says man-made greenhouse gasses are not as big of a driver of climate change as many think -- and that many scientists are in denial about their mistakes.

‘I think in one sense the climate establishment is embarrassed by this, and so they're trying to minimize the problem,’ he said. ‘The fundamental thing a climate model is supposed to predict is temperature. And yet it gets that wrong.’

The study say there are many reasons as to why the numbers are so widely off and it can range from solar irradiation and incorrect assumptions about the number of volcanic eruptions to bad estimates about how CO2 effects cloud patterns.

Mr Christy said he is not optimistic about the models being corrected and updated.

‘The Earth system is just too complex to be represented in current climate models. I don’t think they’ll get it right for a long time.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2419557/Climate-change-models-accurate-study-finds-widely-overestimated-global-warming.html#ixzz2enA8WCvx
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